基于模糊逻辑的大气云粒子相态反演和效果分析

为了探究8mm云雷达探测到的大气云粒子相态特征,根据Shupe总结得到云雷达探测参量:反射率因子、Doppler径向速度、线性退偏振比以及温度在不同相态水凝物对应的云雷达产品特征阈值,采用不对称T型的隶属函数,成员函数包括:反射率因子、线性退偏振比、径向速度以及垂直温度廓线,反演出的粒子相态包括:雪、冰晶、混合相态、液水、毛毛雨、雨等6种。通过联合分析中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室的偏振云雷达探测资料和GTS1型探空仪温度数据,结果表明;通过模糊逻辑法对云雷达探测的参量反演出的大气粒子相态结果与探空实时数据一致性较好,对现阶段常规天气预报参考、人工影响天气作业指挥以及效果评估来说具有较好指导性。     

孟加拉湾超级风暴费林对西藏强降水的影响分析

利用NCEP/NCAR(2.5°×2.5°)再分析资料和常规、非常规观测资料,通过环境场和中尺度特征较全面细致地分析了孟加拉湾风暴费林（Phailin）对西藏特大暴雪的影响。研究表明：“费林”对强降水的影响主要是登陆减弱为低压后,低压云系分两个阶段形成三个中尺度对流云团,对流云团在南支槽的作用下上高原。而强降水的发生和南风风速的大小有直接的对应关系,西南低空急流建立后西藏南部才出现强降水,而低空急流的建立是靠南支槽的贡献。南风风速和强降水的这一重要关系为此类天气提供了预报着眼点。     

The Influence of Merges with Various Mass Ratios on the Spins of Black Holes

The distribution of black hole spins in consideration of only the effect of merges is discussed. The angular momentum after merging is treated via the post-Newtonian approximation, and the effects of merges under different conditions are simulated by adopting the Monte Carlo method. The obtained results indicate that the major merge cannot make the distribution of black hole spins stable, but the minor merge can make the black hole spin smoothly slow down. The distribution of black hole spins can stay at a stable level with the overwhelming proportion of small spins, when the mass ratio of merging black holes takes the form of power-law function. In addition, based on the simulated results, the possible relationship between radio-loud active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and black hole spins is also discussed. Finally, the distribution of radio loudness is calculated and presented.     

新疆希勒库都克铜钼矿区岩浆混合作用: 来自锆石U-Pb年代学的证据

新疆北部富蕴县内希勒库都克铜钼矿区的花岗闪长岩及其包体岩相学、矿物化学和岩石地球化学特征及野外地质特征显示其为岩浆混合作用的结果。本文获得花岗闪长岩及其中暗色微粒包体玄武安山玢岩、细粒辉长闪长岩锆石U-Pb年龄为326.8±2.1Ma、327.6±2.4Ma、329.3±2.3Ma,年龄值基本一致,这一结果从年代学角度为花岗闪长岩及其中暗色微粒包体的岩浆混合作用成因提供证据。偏酸性的花岗闪长质与偏基性玄武安山质岩浆混合作用形成了331.9±2.1Ma的安山玢岩脉。     

高放废物处置库甘肃北山预选区地下水位动态特征

阐明了甘肃北山预选区地下水位动态特征及其与当地大气降水的关系,并对其动态类型进行了剖析,由此得出北山地区地下水源自当地大气降水补给的认识。为处置库预选区场址评价提供了水文地质依据。     

Distribution characteristics of delta reservoirs reshaped by bottom currents: A case study from the second member of the Yinggehai Formation in the DF1-1 gas field,Yinggehai Basin,South China Sea

The Dongfang1-1 gas field (DF1-1) in the Yinggehai Basin is currently the largest offshore self-developed gas field in China and is rich in oil and gas resources. The second member of the Pliocene Yinggehai Formation (YGHF) is the main gas-producing formation and is composed of various sedimentary types; however, a clear understanding of the sedimentary types and development patterns is lacking. Here, typical lithofacies, logging facies and seismic facies types and characteristics of the YGHF are identified based on high-precision 3D seismic data combined with drilling, logging, analysis and testing data. Based on 3D seismic interpretation and attribute analysis, the origin of high-amplitude reflections is clarified, and the main types and evolution characteristics of sedimentary facies are identified. Taking gas formation upper II (IIU) as an example, the plane distribution of the delta front and bottom current channel is determined; finally, a comprehensive sedimentary model of the YGHF second member is established. This second member is a shallowly buried “bright spot” gas reservoir with weak compaction. The velocity of sandstone is slightly lower than that of mudstone, and the reflection has medium amplitude when there is no gas. The velocity of sandstone decreases considerably after gas accumulation, resulting in an increase in the wave impedance difference and high-amplitude (bright spot) reflection between sandstone and mudstone; the range of high amplitudes is consistent with that of gas-bearing traps. The distribution of gas reservoirs is obviously controlled by dome-shaped diapir structural traps, and diapir faults are channels through which natural gas from underlying Miocene source rocks can enter traps. The study area is a delta front deposit developed on a shallow sea shelf. The lithologies of the reservoir are mainly composed of very fine sand and coarse silt, and a variety of sedimentary structural types reflect a shallow sea delta environment; upward thickening funnel type, strong toothed bell type and toothed funnel type logging facies are developed. In total, 4 stages of delta front sand bodies (corresponding to progradational reflection seismic facies) derived from the Red River and Blue River in Vietnam have developed in the second member of the YGHF; these sand bodies are dated to 1.5 Ma and correspond to four gas formations. During sedimentation, many bottom current channels (corresponding to channel fill seismic facies) formed, which interacted with the superposed progradational reflections. When the provenance supply was strong in the northwest, the area was dominated by a large set of delta front deposits. In the period of relative sea level rise, surface bottom currents parallel to the coastline were dominant, and undercutting erosion was obvious, forming multistage superimposed erosion troughs. Three large bottom current channels that developed in the late sedimentary period of gas formation IIU are the most typical.     

1961—2010年东北地区四季开始日及长短变化特征分析

用1961—2010年东北地区90个气象观测站的观测资料,采用钱诚等四季划分的方法,分析了东北地区四季开始日、长短变化特征及其对农业的影响。研究表明:东北地区近50 a来,四季(春、夏、秋、冬)平均开始日分别为4月10日、6月25日、8月11日和10月20日,平均长度分别为80 d、51 d、72 d和171 d,且区域差异比较明显。春季和夏季的开始日在明显提前,分别为-1.46 d/10a、-1.99 d/10a;秋季和冬季的开始日明显推迟,分别为2.05 d/10a、0.90 d/10a。平均春、秋和冬季的持续时间在缩短,分别为-0.54 d/10a、-1.15 d/10a、-2.50 d/10a,春、秋季的变化未通过显著性检验,冬季通过了0.05的显著性检验。夏季时间延长,为3.38 d/10a。春季的提前和秋季的推迟,使农作物适宜生育期延长;同时对作物品种熟性和种植格局也会产生一定的影响。     

利用验潮站数据进行三种潮汐模型的精度分析

采用全球分布的565个验潮站水位资料对NAO.99b,CSR4.0和TPXO7.2三种潮汐模型进行精度评估。结果表明:在全球海洋范围内,NAO.99b模型精度最高;在黄海海域,TPXO7.2模型的精度最高;在东海和南海海域,则是NAO.99b模型最优;在深海海域,三种模型精度差异不大;在浅海海域,采用同化方法的潮汐模型比采用经验方法的潮汐模型更有优势。     

河南省人工增雨飞机云微物理探测设计

人工增雨是一项研究型业务,飞机外场作业、探测是它的重点,只有根据一定目的方案设计下才能体现探测、作业资料的研究价值。根据河南省人工增雨作业、探测分析研究的需要并结合行业专项飞机探测,探讨了5种云微物理探测目的及相应飞机探测设计:1典型锋面云系垂直剖面结构探测;2降水性层状云垂直结构探测;3人工增雨催化作业效果检验飞行探测;4云中过冷水探测;5催化剂在云中的扩散及其物理响应的探测。以2013年3月25日飞机人工增雨探测为例,探讨了飞行探测人工增雨的催化作业效果检验。     

Variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in FGOALS-g2简

The variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation （AMOC） in the pre-industrial control experiment of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 （FGOALS-g2） was investigated using the model outputs with the most stable state in a 512-yr time window from the total 1500-yr period of the experiment. The period of AMOC in FGOALS-g2 is double peaked at 20 and 32 years according to the power spectrum, and 22 years according to an auto-correlation analysis, which shows very obvious decadal variability. Like many other coupled climate models, the decadal variability of AMOC in FGOALS-g2 is closely related to the convection that occurs in the Labrador Sea region. Deep convection in the Labrador Sea in FGOALS-g2 leads the AMOC maximum by 3-4 years. The contributions of thermal and haline effects to the variability of the convection in three different regions [the Labrador, Irminger and Greenland-Iceland- Norwegian （GIN） Seas] were analyzed for FGOALS-g2. The variability of convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas is thermally dominant, while that in the colder GIN Seas can be mainly attributed to salinity changes due to the lower thermal expansion. By comparing the simulation results from FGOALS-g2 and 11 other models, it was found that AMOC variability can be attributed to salinity changes for longer periods （longer than 35 years） and to temperature changes for shorter periods.